Saturday, March 15, 2003

NOT A HOUSEHOLD NAME, YET

Read the CACI Analyst's recent article on GULBUDDIN HEKMATYAR, a Pashtun leader who is causing the U.S. some problems in Afghanistan. Two points of interest:
[I]n the process of prosecuting its war against Al Qaeda and Taliban remnants, the U.S. is creating considerable discontent through the violations of Pashtun tribal law. In particular, intrusive searches by U.S. military involving the violation of Purdah are causing resentment that Hekmatyar can build on. U.S. soldiers braking into the confined areas where women live is a grave violation of tribal custom, and though perhaps necessary from a military point of view, carries with it significant implications for the U.S. military’s relationship with the local population.

and:
The possible war in Iraq will be taken by many forces as a sign that America may distracted from Afghanistan, and lead to various internal and external forces moving their positions forward in the country. Hekmatyar may well capitalize on this window of opportunity to rally greater support for what is in fact a classic nationalist cause. He is known for his maximalist ambitions in negotiations, which have not earned him many points as a negotiator, but certainly has earned him a certain level of respect as a man who does not make shady deals.

Let me echo Josh Chafetz's claim that a dip in U.S. attention to Afghanistan cannot be justified. I'm more pessimistic than Josh, however. The intersection of custom, religion and military occupation that CACI notes in the first quote, above, only increases my pessimism: if the pleas of Said Tayeb Jawad for more assistance in disarming the Afghan population are heard, resentments against a U.S. occupying force are likely to grow. What a tough situation.