GERMANY AND THE IRAQ WAR

Michael Mertes, former advisor to Helmut Kohl, gives his take on the effects of German opposition to the U.S. in the run-up to the Iraq war. (Link from my friend Parley) According to Mertes, Germany has lost the trust of the U.S. and has also harmed the multilateral institutions that provided political, economic, and military security for Europe since WWII. The article is worth a read, particularly for the conclusion: Germany needs to beef up its military spending while convincing the rest of the world that it is not becoming militaristic:

Besides abandoning any Gaullist pretensions, the other lesson Germany must learn is that influence is based not only on soft "civilian power," but also on hard military capabilities that are adapted to the exigencies of the post-Cold War world. If Germany wants to increase its diplomatic weight, it must increase its defense spending. Only an enhanced German relevance in European and world politics will convince America that it is time to bury the hatchet.

If pursued, this course will be a difficult tightrope, especially given the hardline Bush administration worries about a resurgent military power in Europe. And it seems to me that Mertes overestimates the significance of the "personal betrayal" that Bush is supposed to have felt toward Schroeder; perhaps Schroeder should have been more careful in his opposition to U.S. policy, but the blame also lies squarely with Bush, who refused to engage multilateral institutions to the same degree that Clinton did. Mertes admits this point, however. He is more concerned with how to repair the damage -- to both U.S. / German relations as well as common European aspirations -- caused by what he calls Schroeder's "fecklessness." Mertes underestimates how much the split with Germany was an opportunity for a "divide and conquer" strategy to be pushed by those in the administration who were already suspicious of European power. I find it hard to believe that anything short of total German cooperation (a pipe dream) would have been acceptable to the Bush administration.