BUSH IS VULNERABLE

Incumbents present themselves as invulnerable, but it "ain't necessarily so." For an early electoral map and some analysis, see the Daily Kos's post, here. Kos looks at Larry Sabato's predictions that most Democrats who are likely to get the nomination have a very good chance at winning over Bush.

Bush will be vulnerable on a national scale if his opponents keep the nastiness of current Republican leaders in the spotlight. One way that Clinton won was to appeal to socially liberal but relatively economically conservative voters. Bush's opponents should be able to do the same.

I would love to see Tom Delay's face a lot over the next year or so. Here are some choice words from a speech that he gave last week, which I linked to here:

Just look at [the Democratic] presidential candidates: it's like they're lost in a time warp. [. . .]

While everyone else got the memo that big-government, blame-America-first liberalism died with disco, the Howard Dean Democrats still want to party like it's 1979!

Maybe we should thank the Democrats for shedding their moderate clothing to reveal their true Swinging-Seventies selves.

But frankly, America doesn't need a president in a hot-pink leisure suit.

You think that's funny, Mr. Delay? Keep it up, then. And as some folks in your base smirk over such not-so-subtle invocations of anti-gay animus, the rest of the country will turn away from you in shame.

This is not to say that there are no arguments to be made with respect to serious policy issues having to do with the family and sexuality. It is to say that Mr. Delay is the poster boy for the nasty side of the party in power right now, the side that prefers to shout and ridicule rather than talk policy. I can respect people who differ from me and who want to have a discussion about gay marriage and civil unions. I cannot respect people who think that they are both God's gift to the country and God's gift to the world of political humor when they are manifestly neither.

MORE: Both Jim Joyner and Chris Lawrence think I'm overinterpreting Delay's statements. Chris: I'd be happy to loan you my own "decoder for the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy’s 'code words'," but I'd need it back by next week. It's in pretty high demand, and folks aren't producing them anymore. . .

Hey, you don't see it, you don't see it. To me it seemed like a pretty clear reference to Dean's stand on civil unions, and a few other people who heard the comments thought so as well. But they were mostly unreliable, humorless liberal types anyway. I suppose we'll just have to ask the man himself. And BTW, Jim, the Montana ad that is the subject of the story that you linked to never explicitly said that Mike Taylor was gay, but it was pretty clear to his campaign what was going on. You can't really have it both ways, I'd say: either Tom Delay was making a similar kind of reference or he wasn't. I'd opt for the latter, but I'm not a big fan of the guy anyway so I'll admit to low levels of willingness to give him the benefit of the doubt.