SCHROEDER'S SMALLPOX SCANDAL: As
Andrew Sullivan notes, on Sunday the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
published a German health ministry report from last year that called attention to the disasterous effects that a smallpox outbreak would have on the German population. (Thanks to my friend, Journal of Democracy editor and Tocqueville scholar
extraordinaire John Gould for calling my attention to the story.) A Times online story discusses the report
here.
The report is dated August 9th and reads in partinent parts -- and in a quick translation that minimizes the bureaucratic language -- as follows:
Bonn, 9 August 2002
German Health Ministry
[. . .]
The immediate procurement of [funds] for immunization against smallpox is needed immediately for the following reasons:
1. The Risk of an Attack
The international situation as perceived by our intelligence services indicates a heightened increase in the danger [of an attack]. German intelligence services have documented evidence that shows that smallpox is stored illegally outside of the official laboratories in Atlanta and Koltsovo, for example in Russia, Iraq and North Korea. There are also indications that terrorist groups seek to produce biological weapons. Because of the extremely contagious nature of the virus and the mobility of the world population, an attack [with such weapons] anywhere in the world poses an extraordinary danger for Germany as well. Signs of a possible US attack on Iraq are accumulating. It is possible that Iraq may react to such an attack with biological weapons, including smallpox, within its possession.
[Then the report details the possible disaster that could result from a smallpox attack -- up to 25 million German casualties -- and the lack of German preparedness in this area when compared with the US and Israel.]
FAZ notes that the government kept this report a secret for months, and it has quickly become a partisan issue in Germany, as an article in the Tagesspiegel notes ("Smallpox Panic becomes a Topic of Dispute"). In that article, the German minister for the interior, Otto Schilly (SPD) is quoted as saying that the paper speaks only of an "abstract danger" that smallpox could be used by terrorists, and that Germans have known, since the 1990s, that Iraq has "experimented with smallpox virus."
So far, I haven't seen this "documented evidence." It might not even exist, really. It's not clear the extent to which this health ministry report is an indication that Germans knew any more that I know about current Iraqi possession of smallpox. It's common knowledge, I gather, that Iraq did have an active bio-weapons program in the 1990s. Do the Germans have any more information?
The story does raise the question of the integrity of Schroeder's case against war, however: if he knows that bio-weapons exist in Iraq, then he should at least be sharing this information. Speculations crowd upon speculations. But, again, the document is from the health ministry, and as you can see, it speaks in a general way about "documented evidence" without discussing the evidence in detail. The ministry might simply be thinking responsibly here: in light of the danger a smallpox outbreak could pose for a country with low immunization supplies, it's worth taking even common-knowledge-type evidence quite seriously.
Surely more infomation is needed from the German government on this issue.
UPDATE: As Josh Marshall writes here, one criticism of Schroeder's suppression of the Health Ministry's smallpox memo is that it looks like Schroeder suppressed the document in order to keep its opposition to the U.S. Iraq policy alive. This interpretation is plausible in the following respect: the original memo notes the danger to Germany of a smallpox outbreak is of monumental proportions, and if the Bush administration is right in claiming that Iraqi bio-weapons could make it into the hands of terrorists, and that a war is the only way to prevent this from happening, and Schroeder believes all these things, then Schroeder is being duplicitous. But there's a long chain of reasoning to get there, I'd say.
I prefer one of two alternate interpretations:
1) the memo is really nothing new (it's merely a worst-case-scenario attempt to justify a sensible public health policy measure, namely, increasing stockpiles of smallpox vaccinations to levels commensurate with those in the U.S. or Israel; we had this kind of discussion last year, and Germany is often behind the ball on security issues, as I noted here).
2) or it may strengthen Schroeder's anti-war stance, since in the Health Ministry's estimation, a war with Iraq will increase the risk that terrorists will use their existing bio-weapons, and perhaps smallpox is among those weapons. So Schroeder would have another reason to oppose war.
Neither interpretation explains the "suppression" of the memo. But given the fact that the memo speaks of the possibility of catastrophe as a result of a smallpox outbreak and thus exposes a grave weakness in the preparedness of the German government, I don't think it's really surprising that Schroeder would want to keep the thing under wraps.
ANOTHER THOUGHT: The official explanation from the government is that the report was carelessly worded. Read the Guardian article here.